Standard parlay tools multiply prices. PolyParlay runs 10,000 Monte Carlo sims on your slip, flips your weakest leg, and computes Kelly bet size — automatically. →
For every slip, we sample 10K independent outcomes per leg and AND them. The output is a full win-rate distribution, not a single multiplier. You see if your 4.11× parlay has a 36% real win rate or a 9% one — same multiplier, very different bet.
The simulator identifies which leg is dragging your win rate down. Click Improve Odds and we flip or drop it — recomputing the slip in real time. Typical lift on a weak leg: +15–25pp win rate. Polymarket doesn't surface this. Neither does any spreadsheet.
Given your win rate and combined multiplier, we solve f = (WR × (mult − 1) − loseRate) / (mult − 1), halve for variance, and recommend a concrete stake against your bankroll. Most bettors eyeball this and overstake by 3–5×.
Stack up to 3 Polymarket markets. Combined multiplier, "you'll actually get" payout, risk score, resolution dates — live.
10K-iteration simulation. Real probability distribution. The algorithm finds your weakest leg and tells you whether to flip or drop it.